U.S. Could Face Major Surgeon Shortage

TUESDAY, Sept. 29, 2026 (HealthDay News) — Rural Americans will be hit hardest by a projected nationwide shortfall of 28,000 surgeons by 2038, a new report warns.

Specialties such as vascular surgery, ophthalmology, thoracic surgery and plastic surgery will face the biggest shortages, according to a study presented Monday at the annual meeting of the American College of Surgeons (ACS) in Washington, D.C.

The supply of surgeons "is projected to fall while demand keeps rising," noted study lead author Fernando Ribeiro Duraes, adding that "the gaps are worse in rural areas." 

Duraes, who spoke in an ACS news release, is a medical student at Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine in Cleveland.

In the study, Duraes' team used a federal government computer model to project surgical supply and demand across 10 specialties from 2023 to 2038. The model drew on patient demographics, patterns of health care utilization and physician-to-population ratios. 

The news wasn't great: Based on the projections, by 2038 the supply of surgeons can be expected to drop by 4.2% while demand surges 12.8%. That's a shortage of 27,940 surgeons needed to care for patients nationwide, Duraes and colleagues said.

Shortages are expected to be worst in four specialties: Vascular surgery (only 65.8% of patients will have enough surgeons to care for them); ophthalmology (71.8% of needs met); thoracic surgery (73.1% of needs met); and plastic surgery (74.1% of needs met).

All of this will mean longer waits and longer travel times for patients — especially those living in rural America, the researchers said.

Duraes pointed to one sign of hope:  Proposed bill H.R. 3890, the Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act, which is working its way through Congress.  

The bill is aimed at raising the number of resident surgeons in training, which hasn't changed since 1997, according to the ACS. 

The bill also proposes removing federal caps on student loans to encourage more people to train as surgeons, and loan-forgiveness programs to “encourage physicians to go to these rural areas,” Duraes said.

Any of these "fixes have to be targeted by specialty and by geography" if they are expected to work, he added. 

Because this study was presented at a medical meeting, its findings should be considered preliminary until published in a peer-reviewed journal.

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SOURCE: American College of Surgeons, news release, Sept. 26, 2026