Type 1 Diabetes Cases Forecast To Surge 30% Worldwide By 2049

TUESDAY, Sept. 1, 2026 (HealthDay News) — The number of people living with type 1 diabetes worldwide is projected to jump nearly 30% over the next two decades from 9.4 million today to 12.1 million by 2049.

The number of new cases per year is expected to climb too, rising 14% globally over the same period.

The impact could be substantial in the U.S., where more than half a million additional people are projected to be living with type 1 diabetes by 2049.

Dr. Anders Green of the Steno Diabetes Center in Denmark and colleagues say high rates in the U.S. and other wealthy countries, including Australia and the U.K., are likely linked to genetics, environmental triggers and high detection rates.

The largest relative increase is expected in low-income countries, as better access to insulin and glucose monitoring improves survival.

The burden already extends heavily to younger people: Those under 20 represented an estimated 42% of new cases last year.

The study also projects all-cause deaths among people with type 1 diabetes will rise from about 361,000 in 2025 to 538,000 by 2049.

The authors say their findings underscore "the need to continue to improve access to insulin and quality of care, particularly in low-resource settings."

The findings are scheduled for presentation in Milan at a meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes Sept. 28 to Oct. 2. 

Findings presented at medical meetings are considered preliminary until published in a peer-reviewed journal.

More information

The American Diabetes Association has more on type 1 diabetes.

SOURCE: HealthDay TV, Sept. 1, 2026